The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation’s Monthly Confidence Index (MCI) for November 2016 revealed a slight easing of confidence in the equipment finance market, standing at 54.6 compared to October’s 56.0. Notably, the survey responses were collected before the U.S. elections. This article delves into the insights provided by industry executives and explores their outlook for the future of the equipment leasing industry in light of the recent political developments.
Post-Election Optimism
Valerie Hayes Jester, president of Brandywine Capital Associates, expressed optimism about the industry’s future, especially after the election. She stated that the equipment leasing sector has been expanding its market share and exploring new opportunities within commercial segments. Despite moderately increasing delinquency statistics, portfolios continue to perform well. With the elections over, Jester hopes that small and mid-size business owners will regain confidence and proceed with expansion projects that had been put on hold due to uncertainty in Washington.
Business Conditions Outlook
When asked about their business conditions for the next four months, 13.8% of executives anticipate an improvement, marking an increase from October’s 12.1%. However, 17.2% of respondents expect a decline, a notable rise from the previous month’s 6.1%. This divergence in outlook indicates a sense of caution among industry leaders.
Demand for Leases and Loans
Survey results showed a decrease in the number of respondents who expect demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures to increase, down to 13.8% from the previous month’s 24.2%. Conversely, the percentage of those who anticipate decreased demand slightly declined from 18.2% in October to 17.2% in November. This implies that the majority (69%) believe that demand will remain steady.
Regional and Industry Growth
While national demand for equipment financing appears tepid, regional and industry-specific demand remain vibrant. Harry Kaplun, president of Specialty Finance at Frost Bank, highlights the growth in certain areas, fueled by population migration to more business-friendly locations. This trend suggests that economic growth is not uniform across the country.
Access to Capital
The majority (82.8%) of executives expect access to capital for business funding to remain unchanged in the next four months. There were declines in both those who believe access will improve and those who think it will worsen compared to the previous survey. This sentiment indicates a relatively stable financing landscape in the near future.
Hiring Expectations
Regarding employment, 34.5% of executives anticipate hiring more employees over the next four months, reflecting a positive increase from October’s 30.3%. However, a slightly higher number of companies (10.3%) expect to reduce their workforce, compared to the previous month’s reading of 9.1%. This mixed outlook may indicate uncertainty about the economy’s direction and its impact on businesses.
Economic Outlook
The current evaluation of the U.S. economy shows an increase in the number of executives (100%) who consider it fair, compared to 93.9% in the previous month. The future economic outlook reveals both believers and detractors. While 17.2% of respondents anticipate improved economic conditions over the next six months (up from 15.2% in October), an equal percentage (17.2%) expects the opposite, up from the previous month’s 15.2%.
Investment in Business Development
Looking ahead, 37.9% of respondents plan to increase spending on business development activities in the next six months, a slight uptick from October’s 36.4%. Conversely, 3.4% of executives expect a decrease in spending, an increase from the previous month’s none. This data suggests cautious optimism among industry players regarding future investments.
The November 2016 Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation’s Monthly Confidence Index indicates a slight dip in confidence, primarily attributed to the uncertainties surrounding the U.S. elections. However, industry executives remain cautiously optimistic, with many anticipating growth in business conditions and employment opportunities. The equipment leasing sector continues to adapt to market changes and explore new avenues for expansion. While the future economic landscape remains uncertain, the equipment leasing industry appears poised to navigate challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities.