The Fed Should Consider Two Things before Raising Rates

If the transportation industry is any indicator — and it usually is — then the economy could be on the brink of a downturn.

When the economy is on the decline, the transportation sector is one of the first things to go. According to a report by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, shifts in its index that tracks train, truck, boat and plane activity occur before changes in economic growth, leading the wider economy by about four months.

The index has taken a negative turn starting in late 2015 and into the summer of 2016. While true turning points are usually identified after the fact, the recent downward momentum could signal a similar movement in the economy as a whole.

Worse yet, according to The Wall Street Journal‘s regular survey of more than 60 economists, the chance in August of a recession sometime in the next year was around 21 percent, compared with about 8 percent a year ago. Three-fourths of economists also said that the risks to their GDP growth forecasts in the next year are more to the downside than upside. Link Here.

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